2018年11月17日托?？荚囬喿x預(yù)測機(jī)經(jīng)（版本合集?。?/h1>

• 時間：2018-11-14

• 來源：留學(xué)監(jiān)理網(wǎng)

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本周六將迎來2018年11月17日的托?？荚?/a>，大家在做好充分準(zhǔn)備的同時，來閱讀一下小編為大家整理的有關(guān)本場考試的預(yù)測機(jī)經(jīng)，緩解一下緊張的心情吧！以下是本場考試閱讀預(yù)測機(jī)經(jīng)。

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一、文明衰落引起很多人的研究興趣。其中一個理論是認(rèn)為高強(qiáng)度的農(nóng)業(yè)造成了生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的崩潰：瑪雅人口的數(shù)量和密度都比較大，為了供養(yǎng)這些人口，瑪雅人從事高強(qiáng)度的農(nóng)業(yè)，對土地施加的壓力越來越大，最終造成生態(tài)系統(tǒng)極其脆弱，在不可預(yù)知的氣候變化來臨時崩潰了。也有人認(rèn)為人口與農(nóng)業(yè)只是導(dǎo)火索，更加直接的使得瑪雅文明滅絕的原因在于食物短缺：因為瑪雅農(nóng)業(yè)主要依靠一種在沼澤里抬起來的高地系統(tǒng)，一年四季都可以進(jìn)行農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，因為流失的土壤營養(yǎng)可以通過高地周圍的水渠底部挖泥，再把泥巴堆回到高地而循環(huán)獲取，前提條件是水渠里必須有穩(wěn)定的水位，而嚴(yán)重的干旱大大降低了水位使得高地農(nóng)田系統(tǒng)不再起作用，這是天災(zāi)，有地質(zhì)證據(jù)證明，瑪雅文明消失和歷史一次大干旱時間相同;除此之外也有人禍，瑪雅各城邦猛烈競爭，競相修建起紀(jì)念碑，耗費了大量的人力物力，使得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)充滿壓力。

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二、按照學(xué)術(shù)文章的常見思路打開：引出學(xué)術(shù)話題(一萬年前北美巨型哺乳動物大量滅絕)，提出假說(人類的過度獵殺所致overhunting)，進(jìn)而對假說證據(jù)的尋找，然后又說這個說法太簡單了，肯定還有別的原因，比如氣候干旱，和最終假說破綻的指出(同時代被人類過度獵殺的野牛bison卻沒有滅絕，一直持續(xù)到了19世紀(jì)，所以單靠人類獵殺不足以導(dǎo)致滅絕);于是提出另一假說，進(jìn)入同樣的循環(huán)證明的過程。

三、the origins of plant and animal domestication(重復(fù)2017年7月1日北美題目)

說的是生命的形成。剛開始說地球早期火山爆發(fā)使得地球上有很多大氣，后來就形成了一些簡單的植物，后來這些植物吸收了那些甲烷和二氧化碳光合作用產(chǎn)生了氧氣和水(后來有了海)，那些簡單生物就在海里形成了。洋氣多了以后形成了一個氧氣保護(hù)膜，使得地球氣溫不太高，生物不受SUV上海(這里有一個對比)，太陽系上其他行星因為沒有這個氧氣保護(hù)層所以沒辦法形成生命。

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真題來源：2015-1-10CN

Artisans in Sixteenth-Century Europe 16世紀(jì)歐洲的工匠

For centuries European artisans had operated in small, autonomous handcraft businesses, but by the sixteenth century an evolving economic system—moving toward modern capitalism, with its free-market pricing, new organization of production, investments, and so on—had started to erode their stable and relatively prosperous position. What forces contributed to the decline of the artisan?

幾個世紀(jì)以來，歐洲的工匠們一直經(jīng)營著小型的、自主的手工業(yè)企業(yè)，但到了16世紀(jì)，一個不斷發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系——它以自由市場定價、新的生產(chǎn)組織、投資組織等等——開始侵蝕他們穩(wěn)定和相對繁榮的地位。是什么力量導(dǎo)致了工匠的衰落?

In a few industries there appeared technological innovations that cost more to install and operate than artisans—even associations of artisans—could afford. For example, in iron production, such specialized equipment as blast furnaces, tilt hammers, wire-drawing machines, and stamping, rolling, and slitting mills became more familiar components of the industry. Thus the need for fixed capital (equipment and buildings used in production) soared. Besides these items, expensive in their own right, facilities for water, storage, and deliveries were needed. In addition, pig (raw) iron turned out by blast furnaces could not be forged until refined further in a new intermediate stage. In late sixteenth-century Antwerp, where a skilled worker earned 125 to 250 guilders a year, a large blast furnace alone cost 3,000 guilders, and other industrial equipment was equally or more expensive.

在一些行業(yè)中出現(xiàn)了技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，其安裝和運營成本超過了藝人(甚至藝人協(xié)會)的承受能力。例如，在鋼鐵生產(chǎn)中，高爐、傾斜鐵錘、拉絲機(jī)、沖壓、軋制和縱切機(jī)等專業(yè)設(shè)備成為行業(yè)中較為熟悉的部件。因此，對固定資本(用于生產(chǎn)的設(shè)備和建筑物)的需求激增。除了這些東西，它們本身也很昂貴，需要水、儲存和運送設(shè)備。此外，高爐生產(chǎn)的生鐵在新中間階段進(jìn)一步精煉后，才能鍛造出來。在16世紀(jì)晚期的安特衛(wèi)普，一個熟練工人一年能掙125到250荷蘭盾，一個大的高爐就需要3000荷蘭盾，其他的工業(yè)設(shè)備也一樣或者更貴。

Raw materials, not equipment, constituted artisans' major expense in most traders, however. Whereas in 1583 an Antwerp silk weaver paid 12 guilders for a loom (and made small payments over many years to pay off the debt for purchasing the loom), every six weeks he or she had to lay out 24 guilders for the 2 pounds of raw silk required to make a piece of cloth. Thus access to cheap and plentiful primary materials was a constant preoccupation for independent producers. Using local materials might allow even the poorest among them to avoid reliance on merchant suppliers. The loss of nearby sources could therefore be devastating. As silk cultivation waned around the Spanish cities of Cordoba and Toledo, weavers in these cities were forced to become employees of merchants who put out raw silk from Valencia and Murcia provinces. In the Dutch Republic, merchants who imported unprocessed salt from France, Portugal, and Spain gained control of the salt-refining industry once exploitation of local salt marshes was halted for fear that dikes (which held back the sea from the low-lying Dutch land) would be undermined.

然而，原材料，而不是設(shè)備，構(gòu)成了大多數(shù)商人的主要支出。而在1583年安特衛(wèi)普絲綢編織支付12個荷蘭盾的織機(jī)(并使小多年來償還債務(wù)支付購買織機(jī)),他或她必須每六個星期制定24個荷蘭盾2磅的生絲需要一塊布。因此，對于獨立生產(chǎn)商來說，獲得廉價而充足的初級原料一直是他們的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。使用當(dāng)?shù)夭牧峡赡苁蛊渲凶钬毟F的國家避免依賴商人供應(yīng)商。因此，附近水源的損失可能是毀滅性的。隨著西班牙科爾多瓦和托萊多等城市絲綢種植的衰落，這些城市的織工被迫成為商人的雇員，這些商人從巴倫西亞和穆爾西亞省輸出生絲。在荷蘭共和國，商人們從法國、葡萄牙和西班牙進(jìn)口未經(jīng)加工的鹽，一旦對當(dāng)?shù)佧}沼的開發(fā)被停止，他們就獲得了鹽精煉工業(yè)的控制權(quán)，因為他們擔(dān)心堤壩(將海水從地勢低洼的荷蘭土地上阻擋出去)會被破壞。

Credit was necessary for production but created additional vulnerabilities for artisans. Prices for industrial products lagged behind those of raw materials and foodstuffs, and this, coupled with rising taxes, made it difficult for many producers to repay their creditors. Periodic downturns, when food prices shot up and demand for manufactures fell off, drove them further into debt or even into bankruptcy, from which they might emerge only by agreeing to sell their products exclusively to merchants or fellow artisans who extended them loans. Frequent enough during periods of growth, such credit crises became deeper and lasted longer after about 1570, as did war-related disruptions of raw-material supplies and markets.

信貸對于生產(chǎn)是必要的，但也給工匠們帶來了額外的漏洞。工業(yè)產(chǎn)品的價格落后于原材料和食品的價格，加上不斷上漲的稅收，使得許多生產(chǎn)者難以償還他們的債權(quán)人。周期性的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷，當(dāng)食品價格飆升，制造業(yè)需求下降時，會使他們進(jìn)一步陷入債務(wù)甚至破產(chǎn)的境地，他們可能只有同意將產(chǎn)品完全賣給商人或其他工匠，而這些商人或工匠會向他們提供貸款。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時期，類似的信貸危機(jī)變得更加嚴(yán)重，在大約1570年之后持續(xù)的時間更長，與戰(zhàn)爭相關(guān)的原材料供應(yīng)和市場中斷也是如此。

Artisans' autonomy was imperiled, too, by restrictions on their access to markets. During the sixteenth century, a situation like this often resulted from the concentration of export trade in a few great storage and distribution centers. The disappearance of regional markets where weavers in Flanders (what is now northern Belgium) had previously bought flax and sold linen left them at the mercy of big-city middlemen, who quickly turned them into domestic workers. In a similar fashion, formerly independent producers in southern Wiltshire in England, who had bought yarn from spinners or local brokers and sold their cloth to merchants in nearby Salisbury, became subject to London merchants who monopolized both wool supplies and woolens exports.

工匠們進(jìn)入市場的限制也危及了他們的自主權(quán)。在16世紀(jì)，這種情況常常是由于出口貿(mào)易集中在幾個大的儲藏和配送中心造成的。弗蘭德斯(現(xiàn)在的比利時北部)的紡織工人曾經(jīng)購買亞麻并出售亞麻布，而當(dāng)?shù)厥袌龅南ё屗麄冊诖蟪鞘械闹虚g商的擺布下，這些中間商很快就把他們變成了傭人。同樣，在英格蘭南部威爾特郡，從前的獨立生產(chǎn)者從紡紗機(jī)或當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)紀(jì)人那里購買紗線，然后把紗線賣給附近的索爾茲伯里的商人，現(xiàn)在成了倫敦商人的奴隸，他們壟斷了羊毛供應(yīng)和羊毛出口。

With good reason, finally, urban artisans feared the growth of industries in the countryside. For one thing, they worried that the spread of village crafts would reduce their supply of raw materials, driving up prices. City producers also knew that rural locations enjoyed lower living costs, wages, and taxes, and often employed fewer or simplified processes. These advantages became a major preoccupation as competition intensified in the 1570s and 1580s.

最后，有充分的理由，城市工匠們害怕農(nóng)村工業(yè)的發(fā)展。一方面，他們擔(dān)心鄉(xiāng)村工藝品的泛濫會減少他們的原材料供應(yīng)，從而推高價格。城市生產(chǎn)者也知道，農(nóng)村地區(qū)的生活成本、工資和稅收較低，往往采用較少或簡化的流程。隨著1570年代和80年代競爭加劇，這些優(yōu)勢成為人們關(guān)注的焦點。

題目：

1. Which of the sentences below best expresses the essential information in the highlighted sentence in the passage? Incorrect choices change the meaning in important ways or leave out essential information.

A. In the sixteenth century, the European economy moved toward a system of free-market pricing, new ways of production, and investments.

B. Before the sixteenth century, European makers of handcrafts enjoyed stability, autonomy, and relative prosperity.

C. By the sixteenth century, the rise of capitalism began to weaken the autonomy and relative prosperity of European artisans.

D. European artisans operated small, autonomous businesses before modern capitalism emerged in the sixteenth century.

2. The word “Besides” in the passage is closet in meaning to

A. In addition to

B. More important than

C. Different from

D. Together with

3. According to paragraph 2, how did technological advances contribute to the economic decline of artisans?

A. Artisans had no place to store or use the new machines.

B. Goods produced by the new technology were cheaper than those produced by artisans.

C. The fixed costs of remaining in business became very high.

D. Artisans did not know how to use the new machines.

4. The word “preoccupation” in the passage is closet in meaning to

A. necessity

B. concern

C. struggle

D. uncertainty

5. In paragraph 3, why does the author provide the information about an Antwerp silk weaver' s costs in 1583?

A. To describe some typical costs in the silk-weaving industry

B. To support the statement that artisans' main expense was materials, not equipment

C. To argue against the view that artisans did not have to borrow money to buy equipment

D. To show that materials were cheap and plentiful for most artisans

6. What can be inferred from paragraph 3 about local materials?

A. They were of higher quality than imported materials.

B. They were usually more plentiful than imported materials.

C. They remained available even after merchants began to control the industries.

D. They tended to be more affordable than materials supplied by merchants.

7. According to paragraph 3, which of the following was sometimes an effect on artisans of the loss of local sources of their primary materials?

A. They had to sell their products to merchants.

B. They needed to take loans in order to buy the materials from merchants.

C. They could no longer afford to be independent producers.

D. They imported the materials from distant sources.

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2018年11月17日托福預(yù)測機(jī)經(jīng)

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